season prop · Atlantic basin · settles Mon Nov 30

The Atlantic gets to a normal year: 14+ named storms

4¢

american +2693 · decimal 27.93

on the tape

Season to date: 5 named, 0 hurricanes, 0 major, ACE 4.4 (9% of normal pace — record-low pace). Priced from the 12 modern Atlantic seasons most like this start (1982, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2013, 2014, 2015); settles on the best track after November 30.

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Receipts

prop id WP-ATL-2026-NS-GE14 · opened 2026-09-07T14:51:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape