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WEATHER PROPS

Hurricane seasons · El Niño · the planet's temperature · months vs the record

Season Desk

the long-dated board — analog-priced, receipt-settled
PropWhereSettlesYesMove
This El Niño peaks at ONI +2.0 or stronger — a super El NiñoEquatorial PacificThu Jun 10100¢—★ golden
Earth's 2027 average clears +1.5°C above preindustrial (ERA5)Planet EarthSat Jan 1597¢—★ golden
The Atlantic produces a hurricane at all in 2026Atlantic basinMon Nov 3095¢—★ golden
2026 finishes a top-10 global ACE year (since 1980)All basinsThu Dec 3192¢—★ golden
2027 tops 2024's record as Earth's warmest year (ERA5)Planet EarthSat Jan 1582¢—
San Diego beats a normal winter's rain: DJF ≥ 4.4 inSan Diego, CA · winterMon Mar 178¢—
Phoenix beats a normal winter's rain: DJF ≥ 1.9 inPhoenix, AZ · winterMon Mar 177¢—
San Francisco beats a normal winter's rain: DJF ≥ 10.7 inSan Francisco, CA · winterMon Mar 173¢—
Los Angeles beats a normal winter's rain: DJF ≥ 5.6 inLos Angeles, CA · winterMon Mar 172¢—
Salt Lake City beats a normal winter's rain: DJF ≥ 3.6 inSalt Lake City, UT · winterMon Mar 164¢—
A major hurricane (Cat 3+) forms in the 2026 AtlanticAtlantic basinMon Nov 3063¢—
Portland beats a normal winter's rain: DJF ≥ 15 inPortland, OR · winterMon Mar 156¢—
The 2026 Atlantic season reaches 10 named stormsAtlantic basinMon Nov 3055¢—
Seattle beats a normal winter's rain: DJF ≥ 15.7 inSeattle, WA · winterMon Mar 152¢—
Strongest El Niño in the ONI record — peak ≥ +2.6Equatorial PacificThu Jun 1051¢—
December 2026 runs +0.9°C or hotter vs 1991–2020, globallyPlanet EarthSun Jan 1047¢—
Atlantic ACE salvages half a normal season (66+)Atlantic basinMon Nov 304¢—
The Atlantic gets to a normal year: 14+ named stormsAtlantic basinMon Nov 304¢—

Open Climate Props

52 station climatologies loaded
PropWhereSettlesYesMove
Memphis logs 72+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 72)Memphis, TN · Southeast202699¢—★ golden
Philadelphia logs 16+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 16)Philadelphia, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic202698¢·★ golden
Sacramento logs 84+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 84)Sacramento, CA · West Coast & Southwest202698¢—★ golden
San Diego logs 3+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 3)San Diego, CA · West Coast & Southwest202696¢▼1¢★ golden
Nashville's Oct finishes warmer than normalNashville, TN · Southeast2026-1094¢—★ golden
St. Louis's Oct finishes warmer than normalSt. Louis, MO · Plains & South Central2026-1093¢—★ golden
Memphis's Oct finishes warmer than normalMemphis, TN · Southeast2026-1093¢—★ golden
Indianapolis's Oct finishes warmer than normalIndianapolis, IN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-1093¢—★ golden
Los Angeles logs 5+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 5)Los Angeles, CA · West Coast & Southwest202692¢—★ golden
Des Moines's Oct finishes warmer than normalDes Moines, IA · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-1092¢—★ golden
Chicago's Oct finishes warmer than normalChicago, IL · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-1092¢—★ golden
Cleveland's Oct finishes warmer than normalCleveland, OH · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-1091¢—★ golden
Richmond logs 29+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 29)Richmond, VA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic202691¢·★ golden
Minneapolis's Oct finishes warmer than normalMinneapolis, MN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-1091¢—★ golden
Buffalo's Oct finishes warmer than normalBuffalo, NY · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-1090¢—★ golden
Birmingham's Oct finishes warmer than normalBirmingham, AL · Southeast2026-1090¢—
Milwaukee's Oct finishes warmer than normalMilwaukee, WI · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-1090¢—
Kansas City's Oct finishes warmer than normalKansas City, MO · Plains & South Central2026-1090¢—
Columbus's Oct finishes warmer than normalColumbus, OH · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-1089¢—
Houston's Oct finishes warmer than normalHouston, TX · Plains & South Central2026-1088¢—
Detroit's Oct finishes warmer than normalDetroit, MI · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-1088¢—
Omaha's Oct finishes warmer than normalOmaha, NE · Plains & South Central2026-1087¢—
Dallas's Oct finishes warmer than normalDallas, TX · Plains & South Central2026-1086¢—
Pittsburgh's Oct finishes warmer than normalPittsburgh, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-1084¢—
Milwaukee logs 9+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 9)Milwaukee, WI · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest202684¢—
Seattle logs 4+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 4)Seattle, WA · West Coast & Southwest202684¢—
Philadelphia's Oct finishes warmer than normalPhiladelphia, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-1084¢—
Baltimore logs 34+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 34)Baltimore, MD · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic202683¢—
Oklahoma City's Oct finishes warmer than normalOklahoma City, OK · Plains & South Central2026-1082¢—
Houston logs 111+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 111)Houston, TX · Plains & South Central202682¢▼4¢
Boise's Oct finishes warmer than normalBoise, ID · Rockies & Intermountain2026-1081¢—
Portland's Oct finishes warmer than normalPortland, OR · West Coast & Southwest2026-1079¢—
Austin's Oct finishes warmer than normalAustin, TX · Plains & South Central2026-1079¢—
Wichita's Oct finishes warmer than normalWichita, KS · Plains & South Central2026-1079¢—
Atlanta's Oct finishes warmer than normalAtlanta, GA · Southeast2026-1079¢—
Baltimore's Oct finishes warmer than normalBaltimore, MD · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-1078¢—
Denver's Oct finishes warmer than normalDenver, CO · Rockies & Intermountain2026-1077¢—
Newark's Oct finishes warmer than normalNewark, NJ · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-1077¢—
Charlotte's Oct finishes warmer than normalCharlotte, NC · Southeast2026-1074¢—
New York's Oct finishes warmer than normalNew York, NY · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-1074¢—
Washington's Oct finishes warmer than normalWashington, DC · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-1074¢—
Salt Lake City's Oct finishes warmer than normalSalt Lake City, UT · Rockies & Intermountain2026-1072¢—
Seattle's Oct finishes warmer than normalSeattle, WA · West Coast & Southwest2026-1072¢—
Boston's Oct finishes warmer than normalBoston, MA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-1071¢—
New Orleans's Oct finishes warmer than normalNew Orleans, LA · Southeast2026-1070¢—
Raleigh's Oct finishes warmer than normalRaleigh, NC · Southeast2026-1069¢—
San Antonio's Oct finishes warmer than normalSan Antonio, TX · Plains & South Central2026-1069¢—
San Diego's Oct finishes warmer than normalSan Diego, CA · West Coast & Southwest2026-1068¢—
Billings's Oct finishes warmer than normalBillings, MT · Rockies & Intermountain2026-1068¢—
Los Angeles's Oct finishes warmer than normalLos Angeles, CA · West Coast & Southwest2026-1062¢—
Richmond's Oct finishes warmer than normalRichmond, VA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-1062¢—
Tampa's Oct finishes warmer than normalTampa, FL · Southeast2026-1052¢—
Albuquerque's Oct finishes warmer than normalAlbuquerque, NM · Rockies & Intermountain2026-1052¢—
Charleston's Oct finishes warmer than normalCharleston, SC · Southeast2026-1047¢—
St. Louis logs 47+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 47)St. Louis, MO · Plains & South Central202642¢▲4¢
Sacramento's Oct finishes warmer than normalSacramento, CA · West Coast & Southwest2026-1040¢—
Tucson's Oct finishes warmer than normalTucson, AZ · West Coast & Southwest2026-1039¢—
San Francisco's Oct finishes warmer than normalSan Francisco, CA · West Coast & Southwest2026-1037¢—
Orlando's Oct finishes warmer than normalOrlando, FL · Southeast2026-1037¢—
Phoenix's Oct finishes warmer than normalPhoenix, AZ · West Coast & Southwest2026-1035¢—
Las Vegas's Oct finishes warmer than normalLas Vegas, NV · West Coast & Southwest2026-1035¢—
Miami's Oct finishes warmer than normalMiami, FL · Southeast2026-1034¢—
Newark logs 28+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 28)Newark, NJ · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic202630¢—
San Antonio logs 122+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 122)San Antonio, TX · Plains & South Central202629¢▼3¢
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in Kansas CityKansas City, MO · Plains & South Central2026-1028¢—
San Francisco logs 4+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 4)San Francisco, CA · West Coast & Southwest202627¢—
Jacksonville's Oct finishes warmer than normalJacksonville, FL · Southeast2026-1024¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in DetroitDetroit, MI · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-1024¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in ChicagoChicago, IL · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-1022¢—
Detroit logs 13+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 13)Detroit, MI · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest202621¢—
Chicago logs 17+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 17)Chicago, IL · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest202621¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in DenverDenver, CO · Rockies & Intermountain2026-1020¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in DallasDallas, TX · Plains & South Central2026-1019¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in MemphisMemphis, TN · Southeast2026-1015¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in MilwaukeeMilwaukee, WI · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-1013¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in ColumbusColumbus, OH · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-1012¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in HoustonHouston, TX · Plains & South Central2026-1011¢—
New York logs 22+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 22)New York, NY · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic202611¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in RaleighRaleigh, NC · Southeast2026-1011¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in AtlantaAtlanta, GA · Southeast2026-1011¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in IndianapolisIndianapolis, IN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-1010¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in New OrleansNew Orleans, LA · Southeast2026-1010¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in NashvilleNashville, TN · Southeast2026-1010¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in BirminghamBirmingham, AL · Southeast2026-108¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in PortlandPortland, OR · West Coast & Southwest2026-108¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in AustinAustin, TX · Plains & South Central2026-108¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in PittsburghPittsburgh, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-107¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in WichitaWichita, KS · Plains & South Central2026-107¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in St. LouisSt. Louis, MO · Plains & South Central2026-107¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in BaltimoreBaltimore, MD · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-107¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-106¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in Oklahoma CityOklahoma City, OK · Plains & South Central2026-105¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in RichmondRichmond, VA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-105¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in CharlotteCharlotte, NC · Southeast2026-104¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in BoiseBoise, ID · Rockies & Intermountain2026-104¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in ClevelandCleveland, OH · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-104¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in New YorkNew York, NY · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-104¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in WashingtonWashington, DC · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-103¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in BostonBoston, MA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-103¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in CharlestonCharleston, SC · Southeast2026-103¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in Des MoinesDes Moines, IA · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-103¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in BuffaloBuffalo, NY · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-103¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in SeattleSeattle, WA · West Coast & Southwest2026-103¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in San AntonioSan Antonio, TX · Plains & South Central2026-102¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in Salt Lake CitySalt Lake City, UT · Rockies & Intermountain2026-102¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in OrlandoOrlando, FL · Southeast2026-102¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in San FranciscoSan Francisco, CA · West Coast & Southwest2026-102¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in San DiegoSan Diego, CA · West Coast & Southwest2026-102¢—
Cleveland logs 12+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 12)Cleveland, OH · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest20262¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in Las VegasLas Vegas, NV · West Coast & Southwest2026-102¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in NewarkNewark, NJ · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-101¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in Los AngelesLos Angeles, CA · West Coast & Southwest2026-101¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in MinneapolisMinneapolis, MN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-101¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in TampaTampa, FL · Southeast2026-101¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in PhoenixPhoenix, AZ · West Coast & Southwest2026-101¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in OmahaOmaha, NE · Plains & South Central2026-101¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in MiamiMiami, FL · Southeast2026-101¢—
Pittsburgh logs 10+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 10)Pittsburgh, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic20261¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in JacksonvilleJacksonville, FL · Southeast2026-101¢—
Buffalo logs 1+ days of 90°F this year (normal: 1)Buffalo, NY · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic20261¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in BillingsBillings, MT · Rockies & Intermountain2026-101¢—
Top-5 warmest Oct on record in SacramentoSacramento, CA · West Coast & Southwest2026-101¢—

Graded

PropWhereSettlesYesMove
Albuquerque's Sep finishes warmer than normalAlbuquerque, NM · Rockies & Intermountain2026-09NO ✗·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in AlbuquerqueAlbuquerque, NM · Rockies & Intermountain2026-09NO ✗·
Atlanta's Sep finishes warmer than normalAtlanta, GA · Southeast2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in AtlantaAtlanta, GA · Southeast2026-09YES ✓·
Austin's Sep finishes warmer than normalAustin, TX · Plains & South Central2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in AustinAustin, TX · Plains & South Central2026-09YES ✓·
Birmingham's Sep finishes warmer than normalBirmingham, AL · Southeast2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in BirminghamBirmingham, AL · Southeast2026-09YES ✓·
Billings's Sep finishes warmer than normalBillings, MT · Rockies & Intermountain2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in BillingsBillings, MT · Rockies & Intermountain2026-09NO ✗·
Nashville's Sep finishes warmer than normalNashville, TN · Southeast2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in NashvilleNashville, TN · Southeast2026-09YES ✓·
Boise's Sep finishes warmer than normalBoise, ID · Rockies & Intermountain2026-09NO ✗·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in BoiseBoise, ID · Rockies & Intermountain2026-09NO ✗·
Boston's Sep finishes warmer than normalBoston, MA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-09NO ✗·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in BostonBoston, MA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-09NO ✗·
Buffalo's Sep finishes warmer than normalBuffalo, NY · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in BuffaloBuffalo, NY · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-09NO ✗·
Baltimore's Sep finishes warmer than normalBaltimore, MD · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in BaltimoreBaltimore, MD · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-09NO ✗·
Charleston's Sep finishes warmer than normalCharleston, SC · Southeast2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in CharlestonCharleston, SC · Southeast2026-09NO ✗·
Cleveland's Sep finishes warmer than normalCleveland, OH · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in ClevelandCleveland, OH · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-09NO ✗·
Charlotte's Sep finishes warmer than normalCharlotte, NC · Southeast2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in CharlotteCharlotte, NC · Southeast2026-09YES ✓·
Columbus's Sep finishes warmer than normalColumbus, OH · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in ColumbusColumbus, OH · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-09NO ✗·
Washington's Sep finishes warmer than normalWashington, DC · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in WashingtonWashington, DC · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-09NO ✗·
Denver's Sep finishes warmer than normalDenver, CO · Rockies & Intermountain2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in DenverDenver, CO · Rockies & Intermountain2026-09NO ✗·
Dallas's Sep finishes warmer than normalDallas, TX · Plains & South Central2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in DallasDallas, TX · Plains & South Central2026-09YES ✓·
Des Moines's Sep finishes warmer than normalDes Moines, IA · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in Des MoinesDes Moines, IA · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-09NO ✗·
Detroit's Sep finishes warmer than normalDetroit, MI · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in DetroitDetroit, MI · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest2026-09NO ✗·
Newark's Sep finishes warmer than normalNewark, NJ · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-09YES ✓·
Top-5 warmest Sep on record in NewarkNewark, NJ · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic2026-09NO ✗·
Climate props are lined from each station's own official NWS record — full period of record via RCC-ACIS, current through yesterday — and settle on that same record: never a different thermometer than the one that drew the line. Normals are 1991–2020. The projection banks observed days, takes the forecast window from the consensus engine, and fills the tail with climatology, with an autocorrelation haircut on the variance. Method →