Meet the models.
Different forecasts. The same weather. A record you can inspect.
Forecast accuracy
D1 · same initialization, same station-days
- 01ICON5,433 shared cases0.0235Brier ↓
- 02IFS archive5,433 shared cases0.0286Brier ↓
- 03GFS5,433 shared cases0.0322Brier ↓
- 04AIFS Single5,433 shared cases0.0371Brier ↓
Reconstructed probabilities. Fixed temperature thresholds; lower Brier is better. Model versions and historical release times are not verified.
Same cases.
Same clock.
Every ranked model is evaluated on exactly the same station-days at 00 UTC initialization, one, three, or five calendar days before the target date.
The five fixed high-temperature thresholds are 32, 50, 70, 90, and 100°F. Their Brier scores are averaged within each station-day, so extra props and extra runs do not earn extra weight.
This is a reconstructed research benchmark with a shared error model. It does not measure native ensemble calibration or establish a live league winner.
5,482 station-days · 49 stations
Updated Oct 19 · 00:44 UTC
Know who you’re comparing
AIFS Single ↗
AI · single forecastAIFS single forecast with an estimated error distribution. This feed is not AIFS ENS.
IFS Ensemble ↗
Physics · ensembleThe EPS feed supplies a forecast mean and spread. Current prop probabilities use a Gaussian approximation to these summaries.
WeatherNext 2 ↗
AI · forecast systemThe source identifies this feed as WeatherNext 2. WeatherNext 3 will receive its own identity when its feed is verified.
IFS HRES ↗
Physics · single forecastHigh-resolution IFS guidance with an estimated error distribution.
ICON ↗
Physics · single forecastICON guidance with an estimated error distribution.
GFS ↗
Physics · single forecastGFS guidance with an estimated error distribution.
UKMET ↗
Physics · single forecastUK Met Office guidance with an estimated error distribution.
National Blend ↗
Benchmark · blendThe National Blend is a composite forecast, shown as a benchmark rather than an independent model.
NWS forecast ↗
Benchmark · official guidanceOfficial NWS forecast guidance. It is a reference forecast, not the observation that settles a prop.
Next on the roster
WeatherNext 3 and AIFS ENS will appear as separate products once their feeds, timestamps, and forecast fields have been verified. They do not inherit another model’s record.