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THE FORECAST NETWORK · MODEL TREASURY

Weather Props

The forecast model league

MODEL PARTICIPANTS ONLYSimulation credits · nonredeemable

FORECASTS ENTERED · OUTCOMES VERIFIEDPUBLIC RESEARCH / THE WEATHER SETTLES THE SCORE

THE MODEL BOARD335 props5 models52 stationsLatest snapshot Oct 19 · 06:47 UTCLeague rules & progress ↗

MODEL LEAGUE / ON DECKFollow the next published contests →

FEATURED DISAGREEMENTKBOS · Mon Oct 19

BostonHigh ≥ 59°F

WeatherNext 2vsIFS Ensemble87PT GAP

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

70%

54%

19%

11%

Consensus

57%

THE SCOREBOARD

Forecast accuracy

ARCHIVE

D1 · same initialization, same station-days

01
ICON5,433 shared cases
0.0235Brier ↓
02
IFS archive5,433 shared cases
0.0286Brier ↓
03
GFS5,433 shared cases
0.0322Brier ↓
04
AIFS Single5,433 shared cases
0.0371Brier ↓

Reconstructed probabilities. Fixed temperature thresholds; lower Brier is better. Model versions and historical release times are not verified.

Explore model scorecards ↗

READ THE FIELD

Where the models split

YES probabilities · gap excludes benchmarks

FEATURED DISAGREEMENTKBOS · Mon Oct 19

BostonHigh ≥ 59°F

WeatherNext 2vsIFS Ensemble87PT GAP

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

70%

54%

19%

11%

Consensus

57%

FEATURED DISAGREEMENTKBOI · Mon Oct 19

BoiseHigh ≥ 70°F

IFS HRESvsAIFS Single84PT GAP

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

64%

28%

16%

4%

Consensus

33%

FEATURED DISAGREEMENTKBOS · Mon Oct 19

BostonHigh ≥ 60°F

WeatherNext 2vsIFS Ensemble83PT GAP

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

78%

57%

16%

7%

Consensus

49%

FEATURED DISAGREEMENTKSMF · Mon Oct 19

SacramentoHigh ≥ 73°F

IFS EnsemblevsICON83PT GAP

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

80%

68%

61%

17%

Consensus

69%

FEATURED DISAGREEMENTKAUS · Mon Oct 19

AustinHigh ≥ 83°F

ICONvsWeatherNext 282PT GAP

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

66%

27%

4%

2%

Consensus

22%

FEATURED DISAGREEMENTKSMF · Mon Oct 19

SacramentoHigh ≥ 75°F

IFS EnsemblevsIFS HRES79PT GAP

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

85%

61%

49%

16%

Consensus

63%

FEATURED DISAGREEMENTKTUS · Mon Oct 19

TucsonHigh ≥ 85°F

AIFS SinglevsICON76PT GAP

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

80%

70%

66%

7%

Consensus

66%

FEATURED DISAGREEMENTKSMF · Mon Oct 19

SacramentoHigh ≥ 79°F

IFS EnsemblevsICON74PT GAP

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

49%

47%

23%

8%

Consensus

46%

FEATURED DISAGREEMENTKIND · Mon Oct 19

IndianapolisHigh ≥ 68°F

AIFS SinglevsICON72PT GAP

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

74%

39%

31%

10%

Consensus

52%

FEATURED DISAGREEMENTKPHX · Mon Oct 19

PhoenixHigh ≥ 87°F

AIFS SinglevsICON72PT GAP

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

72%

52%

42%

13%

Consensus

53%

FEATURED DISAGREEMENTKPHX · Mon Oct 19

PhoenixHigh ≥ 86°F

IFS HRESvsICON71PT GAP

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

81%

66%

61%

16%

Consensus

65%

FEATURED DISAGREEMENTKBUF · Mon Oct 19

BuffaloHigh ≥ 66°F

WeatherNext 2vsIFS Ensemble69PT GAP

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

79%

32%

21%

17%

Consensus

45%

Showing 12 of 335 model comparisons. Narrow the date or region to explore the slate.

Snapshot range: Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC → Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC. Models can have different run times. Forecast changes are measured in percentage points.

BEYOND THE LINE

Follow the forecast

Replay the runs ↗

Follow the archive and see when a forecast changed.

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Compare the same weather events at fixed forecast horizons.

The longer game ↗

Explore climate, monthly, and seasonal propositions.

Read the receipts ↗

Inspect the append-only record of live props and settlements.

THE MODEL LEAGUE / SHADOW SEASON

The models make the calls.
The weather settles the score.

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