THE MODEL BOARD335 props5 models52 stationsLatest snapshot Oct 19 · 06:47 UTCLeague rules & progress ↗
MODEL LEAGUE / ON DECKFollow the next published contests →FEATURED DISAGREEMENTKBOS · Mon Oct 19
BostonHigh ≥ 59°F
↗THE SCOREBOARD
ARCHIVEForecast accuracy
D1 · same initialization, same station-days
- 01ICON5,433 shared cases0.0235Brier ↓
- 02IFS archive5,433 shared cases0.0286Brier ↓
- 03GFS5,433 shared cases0.0322Brier ↓
- 04AIFS Single5,433 shared cases0.0371Brier ↓
Reconstructed probabilities. Fixed temperature thresholds; lower Brier is better. Model versions and historical release times are not verified.
Explore model scorecards ↗READ THE FIELD
YES probabilities · gap excludes benchmarksWhere the models split
| STATION / PROP | DATE | CONSENSUS | AIFS | EPS | WN2 | HRES | ICON | GAP | MOVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BostonHigh ≥ 59°F KBOS | Mon Oct 19 | 57% | 70% | 11% | 99% | 19% | 54% | 87pt | +0pt |
| BoiseHigh ≥ 70°F KBOI | Mon Oct 19 | 33% | 4% | 64% | 16% | 88% | 28% | 84pt | +0pt |
| BostonHigh ≥ 60°F KBOS | Mon Oct 19 | 49% | 57% | 7% | 90% | 16% | 78% | 83pt | +0pt |
| SacramentoHigh ≥ 73°F KSMF | Mon Oct 19 | 69% | 80% | >99% | 68% | 61% | 17% | 83pt | +0pt |
| AustinHigh ≥ 83°F KAUS | Mon Oct 19 | 22% | 4% | 66% | 2% | 27% | 84% | 82pt | +0pt |
| SacramentoHigh ≥ 75°F KSMF | Mon Oct 19 | 63% | 61% | 95% | 49% | 16% | 85% | 79pt | +0pt |
| TucsonHigh ≥ 85°F KTUS | Mon Oct 19 | 66% | 83% | 66% | 80% | 70% | 7% | 76pt | +0pt |
| SacramentoHigh ≥ 79°F KSMF | Mon Oct 19 | 46% | 49% | 83% | 23% | 47% | 8% | 74pt | +0pt |
| IndianapolisHigh ≥ 68°F KIND | Mon Oct 19 | 52% | 83% | 39% | 74% | 31% | 10% | 72pt | +0pt |
| PhoenixHigh ≥ 87°F KPHX | Mon Oct 19 | 53% | 84% | 52% | 42% | 72% | 13% | 72pt | +0pt |
| PhoenixHigh ≥ 86°F KPHX | Mon Oct 19 | 65% | 81% | 66% | 61% | 86% | 16% | 71pt | -1pt |
| BuffaloHigh ≥ 66°F KBUF | Mon Oct 19 | 45% | 79% | 17% | 86% | 21% | 32% | 69pt | +0pt |
| Oklahoma CityHigh ≥ 71°F KOKC | Mon Oct 19 | 53% | 78% | 52% | 75% | 34% | 9% | 68pt | +0pt |
| DallasHigh ≥ 84°F KDFW | Mon Oct 19 | 23% | 11% | 37% | 1% | 38% | 70% | 68pt | +0pt |
| DallasHigh ≥ 75°F KDFW | Mon Oct 19 | 73% | 64% | 99% | 31% | 69% | 58% | 68pt | +0pt |
| San FranciscoHigh ≥ 64°F KSFO | Mon Oct 19 | 59% | 52% | 93% | 54% | 47% | 25% | 68pt | +0pt |
| San FranciscoHigh ≤ 63°F KSFO | Mon Oct 19 | 41% | 48% | 7% | 46% | 53% | 75% | 68pt | +0pt |
| PittsburghHigh ≥ 63°F KPIT | Mon Oct 19 | 66% | 68% | 46% | 89% | 77% | 21% | 68pt | +0pt |
| BostonHigh ≥ 57°F KBOS | Mon Oct 19 | 64% | 87% | 27% | 95% | 30% | 35% | 68pt | +0pt |
| Oklahoma CityHigh ≥ 69°F KOKC | Mon Oct 19 | 67% | 90% | 72% | 82% | 55% | 22% | 68pt | +0pt |
| DetroitHigh ≥ 66°F KDTW | Mon Oct 19 | 48% | 67% | 44% | 86% | 47% | 19% | 67pt | -2pt |
| OrlandoHigh ≥ 80°F KMCO | Mon Oct 19 | 60% | 76% | 72% | 78% | 54% | 11% | 67pt | +0pt |
| PittsburghHigh ≥ 64°F KPIT | Mon Oct 19 | 73% | 88% | 60% | 97% | 70% | 30% | 67pt | +0pt |
| OrlandoHigh ≤ 77°F KMCO | Mon Oct 19 | 13% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 26% | 74% | 67pt | +0pt |
| BuffaloHigh ≥ 64°F KBUF | Mon Oct 19 | 55% | 92% | 44% | 97% | 32% | 30% | 67pt | +0pt |
| PhiladelphiaHigh ≥ 66°F KPHL | Mon Oct 19 | 62% | 79% | 42% | 84% | 47% | 18% | 66pt | +0pt |
| PhoenixHigh ≥ 88°F KPHX | Mon Oct 19 | 67% | 73% | 74% | 76% | 74% | 10% | 66pt | +0pt |
| NewarkHigh ≥ 66°F KEWR | Mon Oct 19 | 43% | 67% | 36% | 80% | 38% | 14% | 66pt | +0pt |
| DetroitHigh ≥ 64°F KDTW | Mon Oct 19 | 75% | 90% | 63% | 98% | 62% | 33% | 65pt | +0pt |
| SacramentoHigh ≥ 71°F KSMF | Mon Oct 19 | 86% | 91% | >99% | 87% | 79% | 35% | 65pt | +0pt |
| PhoenixHigh ≥ 89°F KPHX | Mon Oct 19 | 41% | 69% | 32% | 38% | 52% | 5% | 65pt | +0pt |
| RaleighHigh ≥ 66°F KRDU | Mon Oct 19 | 62% | 82% | 59% | 73% | 44% | 18% | 64pt | +0pt |
| DallasHigh ≥ 80°F KDFW | Mon Oct 19 | 25% | 20% | 67% | 3% | 27% | 20% | 64pt | +0pt |
| New YorkHigh ≥ 64°F KLGA | Mon Oct 19 | 53% | 66% | 37% | 86% | 53% | 22% | 64pt | +0pt |
| ChicagoHigh ≥ 68°F KORD | Mon Oct 19 | 40% | 74% | 32% | 78% | 18% | 14% | 63pt | +0pt |
| DallasHigh ≥ 77°F KDFW | Mon Oct 19 | 55% | 44% | 80% | 39% | 46% | 17% | 63pt | +0pt |
| BaltimoreHigh ≥ 66°F KBWI | Mon Oct 19 | 67% | 81% | 59% | 90% | 57% | 28% | 63pt | +0pt |
| Des MoinesHigh ≥ 68°F KDSM | Mon Oct 19 | 53% | 79% | 40% | 82% | 35% | 20% | 62pt | +0pt |
| ClevelandHigh ≥ 66°F KCLE | Mon Oct 19 | 33% | 77% | 46% | 81% | 32% | 19% | 62pt | +0pt |
| AlbuquerqueHigh ≥ 71°F KABQ | Mon Oct 19 | 44% | 42% | 26% | 22% | 84% | 65% | 62pt | +0pt |
| AustinHigh ≥ 86°F KAUS | Mon Oct 19 | 21% | 3% | 24% | 3% | 45% | 64% | 62pt | +0pt |
| JacksonvilleHigh ≤ 71°F KJAX | Mon Oct 19 | 55% | 19% | 67% | 20% | 70% | 81% | 62pt | +0pt |
| CharlestonHigh ≥ 73°F KCHS | Mon Oct 19 | 46% | 81% | 25% | 60% | 20% | 37% | 61pt | +0pt |
| San DiegoHigh ≥ 81°F KSAN | Mon Oct 19 | 51% | 32% | 66% | 25% | 39% | 87% | 61pt | +0pt |
| RaleighHigh ≥ 69°F KRDU | Mon Oct 19 | 42% | 75% | 30% | 53% | 14% | 27% | 61pt | +0pt |
| BostonHigh ≥ 62°F KBOS | Mon Oct 19 | 48% | 63% | 39% | 73% | 12% | 36% | 61pt | +0pt |
| RichmondHigh ≥ 64°F KRIC | Mon Oct 19 | 76% | 89% | 69% | 94% | 64% | 33% | 61pt | +0pt |
| Las VegasHigh ≥ 83°F KLAS | Mon Oct 19 | 38% | 61% | 3% | 59% | 54% | 63% | 60pt | +0pt |
| NewarkHigh ≥ 64°F KEWR | Mon Oct 19 | 66% | 83% | 58% | 90% | 60% | 30% | 60pt | +0pt |
| HoustonHigh ≥ 85°F KIAH | Mon Oct 19 | 37% | 35% | 55% | 29% | 64% | 3% | 60pt | +0pt |
| JacksonvilleHigh ≥ 71°F KJAX | Mon Oct 19 | 62% | 87% | 50% | 88% | 40% | 28% | 60pt | +0pt |
| BostonHigh ≥ 61°F KBOS | Mon Oct 19 | 61% | 58% | 44% | 82% | 68% | 23% | 60pt | +0pt |
| JacksonvilleHigh ≥ 77°F KJAX | Mon Oct 19 | 25% | 66% | 8% | 45% | 7% | 14% | 59pt | +0pt |
| Oklahoma CityHigh ≥ 78°F KOKC | Mon Oct 19 | 36% | 32% | 45% | 12% | 46% | 71% | 59pt | +0pt |
| Kansas CityHigh ≥ 68°F KMCI | Mon Oct 19 | 36% | 68% | 56% | 33% | 23% | 9% | 59pt | +0pt |
| PortlandHigh ≥ 64°F KPDX | Mon Oct 19 | 58% | 68% | 83% | 68% | 39% | 24% | 59pt | +0pt |
| OmahaHigh ≥ 72°F KOMA | Mon Oct 19 | 41% | 32% | 48% | 35% | 65% | 6% | 58pt | +0pt |
| CharlestonHigh ≥ 68°F KCHS | Mon Oct 19 | 60% | 78% | 44% | 83% | 63% | 25% | 58pt | +0pt |
| CharlestonHigh ≤ 67°F KCHS | Mon Oct 19 | 40% | 22% | 56% | 17% | 37% | 75% | 58pt | +0pt |
| PhiladelphiaHigh ≥ 64°F KPHL | Mon Oct 19 | 76% | 91% | 65% | 94% | 68% | 36% | 58pt | +0pt |
| MiamiHigh ≥ 85°F KMIA | Mon Oct 19 | 79% | 54% | 96% | 60% | 38% | 62% | 58pt | +0pt |
| PhoenixHigh ≥ 90°F KPHX | Mon Oct 19 | 26% | 60% | 23% | 26% | 42% | 2% | 58pt | +0pt |
| AustinHigh ≥ 77°F KAUS | Mon Oct 19 | 49% | 44% | 83% | 26% | 38% | 26% | 57pt | +0pt |
| HoustonHigh ≥ 80°F KIAH | Mon Oct 19 | 56% | 57% | 75% | 62% | 42% | 18% | 57pt | +0pt |
| ChicagoHigh ≥ 66°F KORD | Mon Oct 19 | 63% | 87% | 56% | 81% | 35% | 31% | 57pt | +0pt |
| JacksonvilleHigh ≥ 73°F KJAX | Mon Oct 19 | 46% | 66% | 22% | 78% | 33% | 42% | 57pt | +0pt |
| MilwaukeeHigh ≥ 64°F KMKE | Mon Oct 19 | 67% | 85% | 44% | 98% | 42% | 50% | 56pt | +0pt |
| RichmondHigh ≥ 66°F KRIC | Mon Oct 19 | 36% | 54% | 21% | 60% | 4% | 46% | 56pt | +0pt |
| PhiladelphiaHigh ≥ 62°F KPHL | Mon Oct 19 | 87% | 94% | 83% | 98% | 88% | 42% | 56pt | +0pt |
| WashingtonHigh ≥ 66°F KDCA | Mon Oct 19 | 65% | 79% | 49% | 90% | 55% | 34% | 56pt | +0pt |
| WichitaHigh ≥ 76°F KICT | Mon Oct 19 | 36% | 42% | 32% | 26% | 63% | 7% | 56pt | +0pt |
| BillingsHigh ≥ 73°F KBIL | Mon Oct 19 | 16% | 7% | 8% | <1% | 26% | 56% | 55pt | +0pt |
| HoustonHigh ≥ 78°F KIAH | Mon Oct 19 | 72% | 75% | 91% | 65% | 64% | 36% | 55pt | +0pt |
| BirminghamHigh ≥ 71°F KBHM | Mon Oct 19 | 60% | 63% | 82% | 53% | 31% | 28% | 55pt | +0pt |
| BoiseHigh ≥ 78°F KBOI | Mon Oct 19 | 48% | 75% | 42% | 58% | 56% | 21% | 55pt | +0pt |
| IndianapolisHigh ≥ 69°F KIND | Mon Oct 19 | 37% | 65% | 35% | 50% | 27% | 10% | 55pt | +0pt |
| BuffaloHigh ≥ 61°F KBUF | Mon Oct 19 | 75% | 90% | 54% | 96% | 61% | 41% | 54pt | +0pt |
| New YorkHigh ≥ 60°F KLGA | Mon Oct 19 | 83% | 87% | 44% | 99% | 73% | 89% | 54pt | +0pt |
| New YorkHigh ≥ 62°F KLGA | Mon Oct 19 | 78% | 82% | 59% | 95% | 73% | 41% | 54pt | +0pt |
| Salt Lake CityHigh ≥ 69°F KSLC | Mon Oct 19 | 58% | 73% | 57% | 22% | 77% | 30% | 54pt | +0pt |
| DenverHigh ≥ 68°F KDEN | Mon Oct 19 | 68% | 78% | 88% | 70% | 70% | 34% | 54pt | +0pt |
| RichmondHigh ≥ 68°F KRIC | Mon Oct 19 | 43% | 74% | 32% | 54% | 20% | 30% | 54pt | +0pt |
| Kansas CityHigh ≥ 69°F KMCI | Mon Oct 19 | 48% | 59% | 46% | 53% | 16% | 5% | 54pt | +0pt |
| St. LouisHigh ≥ 71°F KSTL | Mon Oct 19 | 45% | 63% | 32% | 56% | 17% | 10% | 53pt | +0pt |
| BoiseHigh ≥ 77°F KBOI | Mon Oct 19 | 65% | 83% | 51% | 63% | 67% | 30% | 53pt | +0pt |
| HoustonHigh ≥ 82°F KIAH | Mon Oct 19 | 43% | 43% | 74% | 21% | 30% | 25% | 53pt | +0pt |
| AtlantaHigh ≥ 73°F KATL | Mon Oct 19 | 38% | 45% | 10% | 47% | 44% | 63% | 53pt | +0pt |
| Des MoinesHigh ≥ 66°F KDSM | Mon Oct 19 | 70% | 91% | 60% | 86% | 56% | 39% | 52pt | +0pt |
| WichitaHigh ≥ 68°F KICT | Mon Oct 19 | 71% | 79% | 63% | 88% | 60% | 37% | 52pt | +0pt |
| OrlandoHigh ≥ 82°F KMCO | Mon Oct 19 | 51% | 79% | 41% | 74% | 27% | 48% | 52pt | +0pt |
| ClevelandHigh ≥ 64°F KCLE | Mon Oct 19 | 70% | 89% | 72% | 88% | 53% | 38% | 52pt | +0pt |
| OmahaHigh ≥ 66°F KOMA | Mon Oct 19 | 65% | 78% | 69% | 84% | 45% | 33% | 51pt | +0pt |
| MinneapolisHigh ≥ 64°F KMSP | Mon Oct 19 | 48% | 78% | 56% | 66% | 46% | 27% | 51pt | +0pt |
| SacramentoHigh ≥ 78°F KSMF | Mon Oct 19 | 58% | 53% | 84% | 33% | 41% | 78% | 51pt | +0pt |
| AtlantaHigh ≥ 72°F KATL | Mon Oct 19 | 48% | 59% | 24% | 60% | 74% | 24% | 51pt | +0pt |
| AustinHigh ≥ 82°F KAUS | Mon Oct 19 | 24% | 18% | 53% | 3% | 30% | 26% | 50pt | +0pt |
| TampaHigh ≥ 82°F KTPA | Mon Oct 19 | 52% | 67% | 64% | 56% | 57% | 16% | 50pt | +0pt |
| MemphisHigh ≥ 75°F KMEM | Mon Oct 19 | 49% | 59% | 72% | 22% | 36% | 42% | 50pt | +0pt |
| Des MoinesHigh ≥ 69°F KDSM | Mon Oct 19 | 36% | 64% | 24% | 45% | 27% | 14% | 50pt | +0pt |
| WashingtonHigh ≥ 60°F KDCA | Mon Oct 19 | 94% | 98% | 50% | >99% | 92% | 96% | 50pt | +0pt |
Showing 100 of 335 props. Narrow the date or region to explore the rest.
Snapshot range: Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC → Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC. Models can have different run times. Forecast changes are measured in percentage points.
BEYOND THE LINE
Follow the forecast
01
Replay the runs ↗
Follow the archive and see when a forecast changed.
02Scout the models ↗
Compare the same weather events at fixed forecast horizons.
03The longer game ↗
Explore climate, monthly, and seasonal propositions.
04Read the receipts ↗
Inspect the append-only record of live props and settlements.
THE MODEL LEAGUE / SHADOW SEASONThe models make the calls.
The models make the calls.
The weather settles the score.
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