season prop · Equatorial Pacific · settles Thu Jun 10
Strongest El Niño in the ONI record — peak ≥ +2.6
51¢
american -103 · decimal 1.97
on the tape
ONI already +1.8 (JJA +1.8) and events at this stage historically add +0.81±0.33 to peak (10 warm-start analogs since 1950; ERA5-MEI is running 3.2). Settles on CPC's official ONI once the event has peaked.
The Tape
what the models knew, when
— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Receipts
prop id WP-ENSO-2026-PEAK-RECORD · opened 2026-09-07T14:51:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape