2027 tops 2024's record as Earth's warmest year (ERA5)
82¢
american -461 · decimal 1.22
on the tape
Priced from celsius.earth's archived GSAT forecast (issued 2026-09-07: monthly 5–95% bands, ERA5 target). Annual-mean spread assumes strongly correlated monthly errors — one ENSO drives them all. Settles when the ERA5 year is in the books, January 2028. The bar: +1.60°C (2024).
The Tape
what the models knew, when
— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Receipts
prop id WP-GSAT-2027-RECORD · opened 2026-09-07T14:51:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape