— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
hres
56¢
eps
52¢
aifs
20¢
icon
11¢
wn2
9¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F1¢
54–55°F2¢
56–57°F4¢
58–59°F8¢
60–61°F13¢
62–63°F17¢
64–65°F18¢
66–67°F16¢
68–69°F11¢
70–71°F7¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KABQ-20261026-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:41+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape