— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
68¢
aifs
62¢
ndfd
54¢
icon
54¢
hres
42¢
nbm
25¢
eps
18¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F15¢
74–75°F26¢
76–77°F28¢
78–79°F17¢
80–81°F6¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,361 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.86.
Receipts
prop id WP-KATL-20261022-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape