— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
57¢
nbm
55¢
wn2
36¢
aifs
34¢
hres
33¢
eps
13¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F7¢
66–67°F12¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F19¢
72–73°F17¢
74–75°F12¢
76–77°F7¢
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,214 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.858 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KATL-20261025-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape