daily prop · Austin, TX · Plains & South Central · settles Sat Aug 15

A 90° day in Austin · Sat Aug 15

YES

settled · observed 103

recon longshot hit golden 15d out whiplash

Reconstructed after the fact from archived model runs — labeled, and never on the tape.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 90°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop went golden 15.2 days before settlement; traded as low as 14¢ and still hit; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Receipts

prop id WP-KAUS-20260815-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-07-31T12:00:00+00:00 · settled 2026-08-15T23:59:00+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · reconstructed history — this prop was priced after the fact from archived model runs and is NOT on the tamper-evident tape · inspect the tape