daily prop · Austin, TX · Plains & South Central · settles Sun Oct 18

Austin high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

YES

settled · observed 75

longshot hit whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 73°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 3¢ and still hit; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

rrfs		92¢
eps		89¢
nbm		75¢
hrrr		67¢
ndfd		56¢
hres		51¢
aifs		49¢
icon		28¢
wn2		26¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-15T15:34:30+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:37:20+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape