daily prop · Austin, TX · Plains & South Central · settles Mon Oct 19

Austin runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Mon Oct 19

2¢

american +6035 · decimal 61.35

on the tape

90°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 90°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

nbm		20¢
ndfd		14¢
icon		7¢
eps		5¢
hres		4¢
wn2		0¢
aifs		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

70–71°F2¢

72–73°F6¢

74–75°F14¢

76–77°F23¢

78–79°F25¢

80–81°F18¢

82–83°F9¢

84–85°F3¢

86–87°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,257 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.865.

Receipts

prop id WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:49+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape