daily prop · Austin, TX · Plains & South Central · settles Mon Oct 19

Austin stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

2¢

american +4286 · decimal 43.86

on the tape

71°F is the bottom-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present).

Canonical settlement condition: High ≤ 71°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

icon		22¢
hres		8¢
aifs		8¢
wn2		8¢
nbm		2¢
eps		2¢
ndfd		2¢
hrrr		2¢
rrfs		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

70–71°F1¢

72–73°F4¢

74–75°F11¢

76–77°F19¢

78–79°F24¢

80–81°F21¢

82–83°F12¢

84–85°F5¢

86–87°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.

Receipts

prop id WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-LE71 · opened 2026-10-15T07:50:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape