— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
81¢
nbm
75¢
eps
73¢
hres
65¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
52¢
aifs
51¢
hrrr
50¢
wn2
34¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F11¢
82–83°F25¢
84–85°F31¢
86–87°F21¢
88–89°F8¢
90–91°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KAUS-20261021-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-20T04:05:11+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape