— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
20¢
hres
11¢
eps
11¢
aifs
7¢
icon
5¢
ndfd
4¢
nbm
2¢
wn2
1¢
hrrr
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F11¢
82–83°F25¢
84–85°F31¢
86–87°F21¢
88–89°F8¢
90–91°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KAUS-20261021-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-14T10:34:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape