— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
53¢
eps
35¢
ndfd
33¢
hres
30¢
icon
26¢
nbm
22¢
aifs
16¢
wn2
8¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F8¢
82–83°F20¢
84–85°F28¢
86–87°F24¢
88–89°F13¢
90–91°F4¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KAUS-20261022-TMAX-GE88 · opened 2026-10-15T07:50:12+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape