— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
64¢
icon
64¢
ndfd
55¢
hres
51¢
nbm
41¢
aifs
26¢
wn2
21¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F7¢
82–83°F18¢
84–85°F28¢
86–87°F26¢
88–89°F14¢
90–91°F5¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KAUS-20261023-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-20T04:05:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape