— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
53¢
hres
48¢
eps
41¢
wn2
27¢
aifs
27¢
icon
22¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F2¢
76–77°F5¢
78–79°F10¢
80–81°F15¢
82–83°F18¢
84–85°F18¢
86–87°F14¢
88–89°F9¢
90–91°F5¢
92–93°F2¢
94–95°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KAUS-20261026-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape