— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
64¢
eps
60¢
ndfd
54¢
wn2
38¢
nbm
37¢
icon
30¢
hres
18¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F6¢
68–69°F13¢
70–71°F21¢
72–73°F24¢
74–75°F19¢
76–77°F10¢
78–79°F4¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBHM-20261019-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-14T02:59:44+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape