— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
53¢
icon
32¢
aifs
31¢
hres
22¢
wn2
19¢
eps
19¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F5¢
68–69°F12¢
70–71°F19¢
72–73°F22¢
74–75°F19¢
76–77°F12¢
78–79°F5¢
80–81°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBHM-20261019-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape