— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
64¢
wn2
64¢
icon
58¢
nbm
55¢
aifs
51¢
hres
44¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F17¢
78–79°F31¢
80–81°F29¢
82–83°F14¢
84–85°F4¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBHM-20261021-TMAX-GE79 · opened 2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape