— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
eps
37¢
wn2
23¢
aifs
21¢
icon
17¢
hres
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F3¢
72–73°F9¢
74–75°F19¢
76–77°F26¢
78–79°F23¢
80–81°F14¢
82–83°F5¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBHM-20261024-TMAX-GE83 · opened 2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape