— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
icon
36¢
aifs
25¢
wn2
25¢
eps
23¢
hres
9¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F13¢
74–75°F21¢
76–77°F23¢
78–79°F18¢
80–81°F10¢
82–83°F4¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBHM-20261025-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape