— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
wn2
38¢
aifs
29¢
eps
22¢
hres
8¢
icon
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F9¢
74–75°F16¢
76–77°F21¢
78–79°F20¢
80–81°F15¢
82–83°F8¢
84–85°F4¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBHM-20261026-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:04+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape