— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
wn2
48¢
hres
45¢
aifs
42¢
eps
28¢
icon
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F8¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F22¢
80–81°F22¢
82–83°F15¢
84–85°F8¢
86–87°F3¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBHM-20261027-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape