— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
78¢
ndfd
59¢
wn2
47¢
hres
44¢
hrrr
42¢
aifs
37¢
nbm
33¢
eps
29¢
icon
14¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F6¢
62–63°F13¢
64–65°F21¢
66–67°F24¢
68–69°F19¢
70–71°F10¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,205 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBIL-20261019-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape