— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
10¢
ndfd
8¢
eps
5¢
aifs
4¢
icon
4¢
wn2
2¢
nbm
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F3¢
60–61°F7¢
62–63°F13¢
64–65°F19¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F11¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F2¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBIL-20261019-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape