— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
70¢
aifs
70¢
eps
66¢
hres
59¢
icon
57¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
33¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F6¢
62–63°F16¢
64–65°F26¢
66–67°F26¢
68–69°F16¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-17T04:42:29+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape