— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
20¢
rrfs
8¢
aifs
8¢
wn2
6¢
hres
3¢
ndfd
3¢
icon
2¢
nbm
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F6¢
62–63°F16¢
64–65°F26¢
66–67°F26¢
68–69°F16¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-14T19:43:40+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape