— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
60¢
ndfd
53¢
hres
44¢
nbm
35¢
icon
30¢
wn2
30¢
aifs
18¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
42–43°F1¢
44–45°F3¢
46–47°F7¢
48–49°F13¢
50–51°F19¢
52–53°F20¢
54–55°F17¢
56–57°F11¢
58–59°F5¢
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBIL-20261024-TMAX-GE55 · opened 2026-10-18T04:14:44+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape