— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
57¢
eps
53¢
nbm
52¢
aifs
40¢
icon
20¢
wn2
12¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
42–43°F1¢
44–45°F3¢
46–47°F7¢
48–49°F11¢
50–51°F15¢
52–53°F17¢
54–55°F16¢
56–57°F13¢
58–59°F8¢
60–61°F4¢
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBIL-20261025-TMAX-GE54 · opened 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape