— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
83¢
aifs
76¢
wn2
56¢
nbm
52¢
eps
50¢
icon
18¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
40–41°F1¢
42–43°F2¢
44–45°F4¢
46–47°F7¢
48–49°F10¢
50–51°F12¢
52–53°F14¢
54–55°F14¢
56–57°F12¢
58–59°F9¢
60–61°F6¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBIL-20261027-TMAX-GE52 · opened 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape