— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
13¢
hres
12¢
rrfs
11¢
ndfd
8¢
icon
5¢
wn2
4¢
nbm
2¢
eps
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
86–87°F1¢
88–89°F5¢
90–91°F16¢
92–93°F29¢
94–95°F28¢
96–97°F15¢
98–99°F4¢
100–101°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,366 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.569 vs climatology 9.34.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260909-TMAX-GE100 · opened 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape