— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
14¢
rrfs
10¢
aifs
9¢
hres
7¢
ndfd
5¢
wn2
4¢
icon
3¢
eps
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
88–89°F3¢
90–91°F11¢
92–93°F24¢
94–95°F30¢
96–97°F21¢
98–99°F8¢
100–101°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,317 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.753 vs climatology 9.34.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260910-TMAX-GE100 · opened 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape