— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
67¢
ndfd
57¢
aifs
44¢
nbm
44¢
hres
44¢
wn2
40¢
icon
33¢
eps
25¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
88–89°F3¢
90–91°F11¢
92–93°F24¢
94–95°F30¢
96–97°F21¢
98–99°F8¢
100–101°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,317 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.753 vs climatology 9.34.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260910-TMAX-GE95 · opened 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape