— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
94¢
ndfd
90¢
eps
80¢
rrfs
78¢
aifs
76¢
wn2
70¢
hres
62¢
icon
43¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
84–85°F1¢
86–87°F5¢
88–89°F15¢
90–91°F26¢
92–93°F28¢
94–95°F17¢
96–97°F6¢
98–99°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,472 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.568 vs climatology 9.329.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260911-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape