— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
9¢
hres
8¢
ndfd
7¢
icon
3¢
wn2
2¢
aifs
1¢
eps
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
80–81°F1¢
82–83°F6¢
84–85°F14¢
86–87°F24¢
88–89°F26¢
90–91°F18¢
92–93°F8¢
94–95°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,423 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.751 vs climatology 9.329.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260912-TMAX-GE100 · opened 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape