— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
40¢
hres
30¢
wn2
26¢
aifs
18¢
rrfs
18¢
ndfd
10¢
nbm
9¢
icon
3¢
hrrr
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
80–81°F2¢
82–83°F6¢
84–85°F15¢
86–87°F24¢
88–89°F24¢
90–91°F17¢
92–93°F8¢
94–95°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,423 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.751 vs climatology 9.329.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260912-TMAX-GE93 · opened 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape