— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
57¢
aifs
55¢
hres
51¢
nbm
43¢
wn2
23¢
eps
23¢
icon
12¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
90–91°F1¢
92–93°F5¢
94–95°F16¢
96–97°F29¢
98–99°F28¢
100–101°F15¢
102–103°F4¢
104–105°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,639 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.565 vs climatology 9.303.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE100 · opened 2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape