— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
73¢
hres
62¢
nbm
57¢
ndfd
56¢
eps
47¢
rrfs
47¢
wn2
23¢
icon
21¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
90–91°F1¢
92–93°F4¢
94–95°F15¢
96–97°F28¢
98–99°F29¢
100–101°F16¢
102–103°F5¢
104–105°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,689 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.564 vs climatology 9.295.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260915-TMAX-GE98 · opened 2026-09-12T15:20:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape