— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
57¢
aifs
29¢
hres
24¢
wn2
23¢
rrfs
21¢
nbm
15¢
eps
14¢
icon
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
90–91°F2¢
92–93°F9¢
94–95°F23¢
96–97°F31¢
98–99°F23¢
100–101°F9¢
102–103°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,590 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.747 vs climatology 9.303.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260916-TMAX-GE100 · opened 2026-09-09T07:37:20+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape