— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
59¢
rrfs
49¢
hres
42¢
aifs
36¢
eps
28¢
nbm
25¢
wn2
25¢
icon
8¢
hrrr
8¢
now
4¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
92–93°F2¢
94–95°F10¢
96–97°F26¢
98–99°F33¢
100–101°F21¢
102–103°F6¢
104–105°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,795 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.559 vs climatology 9.269.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260917-TMAX-GE100 · opened 2026-09-10T07:40:49+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape