— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
62¢
hrrr
56¢
aifs
54¢
hres
38¢
eps
30¢
nbm
25¢
ndfd
25¢
icon
18¢
wn2
8¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
94–95°F7¢
96–97°F35¢
98–99°F43¢
100–101°F13¢
102–103°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,847 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.256.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260918-TMAX-GE100 · opened 2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape