— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
59¢
aifs
51¢
nbm
41¢
rrfs
40¢
eps
30¢
hres
29¢
icon
17¢
wn2
8¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
90–91°F1¢
92–93°F6¢
94–95°F18¢
96–97°F29¢
98–99°F27¢
100–101°F14¢
102–103°F4¢
104–105°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,796 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.739 vs climatology 9.258.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE100 · opened 2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape