— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
59¢
aifs
33¢
rrfs
31¢
eps
24¢
nbm
22¢
hres
14¢
icon
10¢
wn2
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
90–91°F2¢
92–93°F6¢
94–95°F16¢
96–97°F25¢
98–99°F26¢
100–101°F17¢
102–103°F7¢
104–105°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 12,749 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.95 vs climatology 9.255.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260920-TMAX-GE100 · opened 2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape