— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
96¢
icon
80¢
hres
77¢
aifs
75¢
ndfd
54¢
wn2
44¢
nbm
42¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
92–93°F3¢
94–95°F14¢
96–97°F31¢
98–99°F32¢
100–101°F16¢
102–103°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,951 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.234.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260920-TMAX-GE95 · opened 2026-09-14T15:28:38+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape