— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
77¢
nbm
60¢
ndfd
56¢
aifs
52¢
eps
52¢
icon
36¢
hres
30¢
wn2
16¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
90–91°F0¢
92–93°F4¢
94–95°F14¢
96–97°F27¢
98–99°F30¢
100–101°F18¢
102–103°F6¢
104–105°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 12,749 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.95 vs climatology 9.255.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260920-TMAX-GE98 · opened 2026-09-16T03:36:14+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape