— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
17¢
eps
13¢
ndfd
10¢
icon
8¢
nbm
1¢
aifs
0¢
wn2
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
82–83°F2¢
84–85°F5¢
86–87°F10¢
88–89°F16¢
90–91°F20¢
92–93°F19¢
94–95°F14¢
96–97°F8¢
98–99°F4¢
100–101°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 12,649 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.513 vs climatology 9.258.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE100 · opened 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape