— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
83¢
ndfd
56¢
hres
51¢
nbm
46¢
wn2
43¢
rrfs
36¢
aifs
22¢
icon
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F1¢
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F9¢
84–85°F19¢
86–87°F26¢
88–89°F23¢
90–91°F13¢
92–93°F5¢
94–95°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,055 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.207.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE89 · opened 2026-09-16T03:36:14+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape